Video poker mistakes that will cost you money

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»* Video Poker Mistakes That Will Cost You Money

December 12, 2022 · 14 minutes to read

Video poker has long been a favorite of mine because it gives you a real chance to beat the casino. In fact, of all the casino games I enjoy playing, video poker comes in a very close second to blackjack for overall player returnability (the one thing that Jacks or Better video poker lacks is the sizzle of a hot count). But while it is technically a game of chance, like slots or roulette, video poker differs in one important way: astute players can use optimal strategy to turn the game into more of a skill-based contest, akin to blackjack or poker.

Unfortunately, most video poker players fail to take advantage of the game's potential. Although it would seem an easy matter to be trained to play with "basic" strategy - everyone knows what a winning hand looks like, after all - the reality is far different. In my years working the poker room at Caesars Palace I witnessed countless players missing crucial opportunities by failing to take simple, basic actions such as "holding" the winning cards they needed to keep and play again. It wasn't uncommon for me to see a player hit the "bet" button on a jackpot hand, forfeiting a major payout rather than the much smaller initial bet of the game. And don't get me started about those who neglect to sign up for a players club card before inserting their money into a video poker machine. Talk regarding video poker usually focuses on the differences between games using "Jacks or Better" versus "All American" poker tables, or slight variations in payouts for four-of-a-kind hands or straight/flush payments. These are nothing compared to the basic strategy mistakes outlined below which, if made, will cost you huge amounts of money. Let’s dive in.

Not Joining The Player's Club

This mistake is so common it borders on absurdity. All decent casinos offer some form of players club program, under which you simply insert your personal membership card into the video poker machine before playing, and again when cashing out. The only cost to you is the card itself (which should be purchased regardless of whether you're playing for action or not), and the minimal time required to sign up and insert the card into the machine.

The benefits are well worth the trouble. Players club cards offer various rewards based on your level of play, including everything from free rooms and food comps to cash back. A typical cash-back rate starts at 0.1% for lower volume players and scales upwards depending on how many actual dollars you put into the casino via your video poker machines. Even that low 0.1% returns plenty of cash for someone putting in several thousand dollars per day, and the rates go up rapidly from there.

Don’t make the mistake of not joining the player's club.

I once knew an older gentleman who played our highest denomination machines (minimum $5 hands!) for hours every day. After several weeks I noticed he must be raking in hundreds of bucks in comps, yet every time we chatted he had a freshly cracked Nehi in one hand and a bag of Cheez Doodles in the other. After commenting on his snack choices he admitted he'd never joined the players club, figuring that since he was a "loose player" the casino wouldn't offer him any deals anyway. Turned out he was easily pushing $5,000 / week through his favorite machines and was leaving hundreds of dollars on the table each month. Sigh.

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Forgetting To Sign Up For The Players Club

An even bigger mistake is to carry one of "those" players clubs cards. You know the type I mean – those plastic slippers with a magnetic stripe on the bottom used to get into the buffet line. While I'm sure they're quite comfortable for shuffling through miles of all-you-can-eat spread, they're not going to earn you any comps at the poker tables. I cannot tell you how many times per shift I had to reset the poker players club number to the correct account number. These folks were leaving literally dollars on the table with each play. Don't be that guy.

Hitting The 'Bet' Button On a Winning Hand

Okay, this is getting a bit silly. But trust me, I've seen it. When you win a hand at video poker you have two options - collect the winnings on the winning hand, or "bet" again, increasing your bet amount but holding over the winning amount for the next hand. Newbies to video poker often get excited when they see wins for "Three of a Kind" or a "Straight" and reflexively hit the "bet" button.

Hitting 'bet' on a winning hand is a big no-no.

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Now, it would take some serious finger gymnastics to also hold the winning keys from remembering Basic Strategy (see below), but hey - these guys exist. Worse, some of them knew better but were too lazy to press the "hold" buttons for their winning cards, figuring that hitting "bet" would force them to hold those cards when they reappeared on the screen for the next deal. Pressing "bet" on a winning hand, though, automatically forfeits that winning hand! And, since the average return on a "three-of-a-kind" hand is significantly higher than the initial bet amount, we're talking about throwing away literal dollar bills here.

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Not Signing Your Players Club Card

Okay, okay - I know I made fun of forgetting your players club card but what if you do have your card but forget to insert it into the slot machine before you start playing? Believe it or not I saw this all the time. Now, the card does need to be inserted before you begin playing, but it's "significance" isn't picked up until you start betting real money. So if you forget to insert the card you'll be playing for free, but you won't realize it until you go to cash out.

Cash out? Yeah, another thing most video poker players forget to do. They'd just keep hitting the "play" button for credit after credit fell into the hopper, oblivious to the fact that their balance was quickly sliding into the negative. I'd have to interrupt their game to let them know they had $23.75 in credits but a $31.25 loss, leaving them $7.50 in the hole. "WTF?!" they'd exclaim, not understanding where the hole came from. "You played $7.50 worth of free video poker and cashed out $31.25 in winnings but had $23.75 in losings," I'd explain, "so you were actually in the hole by $7.50." More sighing.

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Moral? If you forget the players club card at least you're still playing for free, so no harm no foul. Just be sure to sign the fucking card, okay?

Not Learning Basic Video Poker Strategy

Things are starting to get serious now. We've gone from the ridiculous to the downright irresponsible. Next on the list of video poker mistakes comes in the form of players who simply don't know how to play their hands properly. As I mentioned earlier, video poker differs from games like Blackjack or Texas Hold'em in that it has the potential to be beaten by the player, providing a mathematical edge over the house under one condition - that the player plays with "Perfect" or "Basic" Strategy.

And let's be clear about something - we're not talking rocket science here. There really aren't that many decisions to make during a game of video poker and, aside from a few tricky situations, most of them are pretty straightforward. Hold all winning hands, that is. Deciding what to do with a losing hand is where knowing Basic Strategy becomes so critical.

Most people think they already "know" video poker. They've been playing since before it was called video poker, back when it was simply an automatic version of the five-card draw game they played with their buddies around the kitchen table. Deal, draw, repeat. No worries about computers or probabilities back then, right? Except that modern video poker is very different from the kitchen table version of the game, especially when it comes to when you draw.

Back in the day you could draw and draw until you were sitting with just one card showing, if that made sense. Not so in video poker. The number of cards you draw is fixed at five, of which you must hold four after your initial deal. And what you choose to hold is absolutely critical to your chances of winning - and, ultimately, how much you'll end up making (or losing).

It's not uncommon for someone playing video poker to have a "personal" edition of the game, one with its own unique payouts for everything from two pair up to a Royal Flush. With thousands of possible combinations in a game offering multiple pay scales it would be impossible for anyone to remember the exact payout for every possibility. Which is why Basic Video Poker Strategy Tables exist - a single reference source outlining how to play every possible hand, from the absurdly strong to the pathetically weak. Take a look at the following chart which outlines the Basic Strategy for the popular "Jacks or Better" variant of video poker, as published at the . Note that each table represents a different decision point, beginning with "If four Aces, call/" meaning that if you are dealt only four Aces (highly unlikely, but we're looking at worst case scenarios here) you should hold all four and draw 1 additional card.

Not holding the Aces and drawing another card (even though you already have a Royal Flush showing) is NEVER the correct choice. Contrast that with the next table down, which reads "If 4-Fold Aces, draw 1." This seems contradictory but makes sense once you understand that you may have been dealt more than just four aces. Perhaps you have a pair of Aces and three more singles, for example. In that case you should hold the pair and draw three new cards, according to this table entry. Since the best possible hand you can hope to achieve from this dealing is two pairs (with a high likelihood of ending up with less) drawing three cards is the correct play.

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Take some time to study these tables. Or don't. Your choice. Personally I prefer the four-fold Aces. They pay well with the misses.

Here's the thing - every entry on that chart is accompanied by a reason for making that selection. Remember that two pair hand? Well, sometimes you'd hold it and other times you'd draw to a better hand. Take a look at the following table which outlines the play when dealt four-of-a-kind (4x) in the case where the cards are "Low Pairs," meaning you held the fourth Jack, Queen, King or Ace, instead of a high pair (22, 33, 44, 55 or AS).

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Note that in every instance where you are holding four-of-a-kind plus another pair you should draw the non-paired single! The reason being that you can only keep one of those five cards, and holding the pair leaves you with a lower two-pair than if you held the unmatched king, queen or jack. In fact, the only time you hold the whole four-of-a-kind plus a pair is when the 4x is not a low pair, meaning you''d end up holding 4444KKKK and breaking the maximum hand possible.

Later charts delve into the specifics of when to hold those high pairs, along with a single Ace. Turns out there are slight variations in play depending on which game you're playing (small pairs vs large, for example) but the Basic Strategy charts break it all down in great detail. All you have to do is follow along.

Ignoring Basic Video Poker Strategy

We're getting down to the nitty gritty now. And things are starting to hurt. Look, I get it. Reading charts full of cryptic instructions like "hjkt/" or "gq/" is not much fun. My own experience learning the nuances of video poker wasn't much better. A friend of mine had just opened a new poker room and was desperate for help training his staff. Being a full-time card counter at the time I seemed like a good fit, able to teach the ins and outs of poker, gambling habits and table games in general.

As payment for my services my buddy offered to teach me and my wife everything there was to know about dealing poker, running the table, shuffling shoes and, of course, playing the machines. Being a novice video poker player I happily agreed to the lesson, which turned out to be a huge eye opener. Among the many tips I received was an explanation of "Basic Video Poker Strategy," a list of simple guidelines designed to help a player maximize their theoretical return.

He handed us each a laminated card containing what looked like an old-time telegraph message, explaining that each abbreviated word represented a kind of "code" for the hand we were dealt, with the goal being to hold the proper combination of cards in order to achieve the best possible payout. It was confusing at first but, after a few hours of practice, my wife and I became surprisingly adept at playing "perfect" video poker.

But it didn't last. Within a couple days of my tutor's departure my wife and I were back to dealing cards onto the machines and hoping for the best. And, worse, we had forgotten the very reason we were taught Basic Strategy in the first place.

See, although it felt like we were playing perfectly when we followed the charts, the reality was far different. Video poker, unlike blackjack or poker, is a solo game. There is no dealer "hit" or "stand" for you to base your decision upon. There is no other human being at the table to chat with, or try to figure out if they're card counting. Just you, the machine and whatever skills (or lack thereof) you bring to the party.

Which means you are your own worst enemy.

You will encounter countless situations where holding one set of cards will result in a modest win, compared to holding what turns out to be a losing combo. But over the course of many hands those individual decisions will reverse, with your carefully held four-of-a-kind paying off in spades while your opponent faithfully holds all winning hands only to watch them bust on the draw. Absent the presence of a card counter or other cheaters, though, you'll never know the difference. Those small, individual losses from not getting a expected payout are exactly offset by the big gains from draws that should have lost.

Except when you forget Basic Strategy.

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In that case all of those tiny, hidden decisions go out the window. By choosing to draw to a flush when you should have held that veteran player lamenting yet another poor session might have done a little soul searching instead of blaming his losses on "machine memory" or some other nonsense. Unfortunately, though, most of us simply shrug and move on, blissfully ignorant of the impact our individual decisions have on the final outcome.

Unless, of course, we're aware of Basic Strategy. And then forget it. Which is way worse. Because now we should know better. And that, my friends, is a recipe for disaster.

Let's take a look at the numbers. Assuming a skilled video poker player who remembers to sign up for the players club, receives rewards for their play and avoids all other mistakes besides forgetting Basic Strategy, the net effect on their true theoretical return (TRA) would be a whopping negative 4.67%. Holy shit. And that assumes a player who is completely clueless but capable of dealing themselves some incredibly lucky hands from time to time. If we bump that same player up to merely "average" we're still looking at a 2.98% hit against TRA just from forgetting Basic Strategy alone.

Ouch.

Failing to Learn Advanced Video Poker Strategy

Hey, you got this. Basic Strategy is in the bag. The birdies are singing in your head as you effortlessly hold the proper cards under all circumstances, smiling knowingly as losing players scratch their heads in confusion. Time to kick it up a notch.

Although Basic Strategy goes a long way towards levelling the playing field in video poker there are still opportunities to gain an edge over the house. Again, these moves are far beyond what is necessary for simple Jacks or Better video poker but can make a big difference in the payouts achieved when playing Deuces Wild, Bonus Poker, Double Bonus Poker and their many variants. And, to be fair, most of the strategies involved are intuitive and relatively easy to learn.

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A good place to start is with the proper way to deal with a "low pair."

As discussed above even Basic Strategy has variations on how to play different types of low pairs, holding the four-of-a-kind (never) versus holding the pair (sometimes) versus holding both the 4x and the pair (rarely). But those decisions are mostly based on the potential payout of each variation. If the machine you're playing offers a huge bonus for 5 Aces + 2 Aces (as found in many Double Bonus Poker games) then holding that lousy 22+AKK hand isn't all that crazy.

On the other hand most video poker games don't offer enough of a boost for a high, but low, pair to overcome the fact that said pair will break any higher paying pair or two-part hands you might draw. Enter "Knowing the Ladders."

Each video poker pays out progressively higher amounts for equivalent hands, based on the order of the court of cards. So a Royal Flush will always pay more than a Straight Flush, which in turn always pays more than Four-Of-AKind, Fifty Pairs and so forth. These ascending levels of payouts are commonly referred to as "The Ladders," with each rung representing a stronger hand and higher monetary reward.

Since you only get five cards to work with finding a way to climb the ladders faster can mean the difference between winning and losing. Most video poker players are content to simply hold any winning hand, moving strictly upward on the payout scale. Holding a Straight will cause you to go for a Straight Flush, releasing any cards lower than those in the Straight. Same with a Flush - release all cards outside the Flush in an attempt to achieve a Flush Royale.

Some video poker variants offer significant bounses for "wraparound" payouts.

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But what about those "wrappy around" payout positions, where holding a losing hand along with a winning hand allows you to climb both upward and downward on The Ladders? For example, holding a pair of Aces along with a single King might seem to leave you high and dry, stuck on just a three-of-a-kind payout. But if the video poker variant being played also offers a bonus for a "Royal Flush with One Card Removing a Suit," holding that lone King could allow you to scoop both the Three-Of-A-Kind and the enhanced Royal Flush prize!

Different video poker variants feature varying numbers and types of wraparound payouts, requiring a specifically tuned strategy for each individual game. For example, "Super Double Bonus Poker" features a host of bonuses for different combinations of Kings or Aces, allowing a savvy player to rack up some huge prizes via strategic hold/draw decisions. Unfortunately these advanced strategies can be mind-numbingly complex, requiring constant reference to detailed cheat sheets listing out every possible decision tree. And, in all honesty, most players aren't up to the challenge. Including me.

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So feel free to ignore this section and move on to the next. Unless, of course, you're already comfortable with Basic Strategy and crave an extra edge. Then by all means dig in. Just be prepared for a steep learning curve.

Failing to Utilize Optimal Video Poker Strategy Based on Individual Machine Pay Tables

We're getting deep in the weeds now, but bear with me. Understanding and properly implementing Basic Strategy can increase your theoretical return by over 0.4%, a big number in the world of video poker. Moving up to full "Optimal" Strategy, taking into consideration individual pay tables for each variant of the game, can push that return even higher. Depending upon the game being played an expert player can expect to see a Total Return Average (TRA) ranging from 99.54% - 99.98%.

Wait... What? Isn't poker supposed to be a crapshoot? How can a casino game theoristically return more than 100 cents on the dollar?

Well, it helps that video poker machines accept wagers of only a dollar at a time. Otherwise I'd need a new bathtub.

Still, these numbers are very real. And achievable. Barely.

Understanding pay table variations is key to achieving the highest possible TRA in video poker. Each variant of the game, from Jacks or Better to Super Double Bonus Poker, features what are known as "pay table step functions." Essentially this refers to the increments used to describe each level of winning payouts. Here's a quick example.

A standard Jacks or Better pay table might begin with a return of 1 x for any pair, move to 4x for two pairs, 3x for a Straight, 6x for a House Flush, 9x for a Royal Flush without a Suit, 11x for a High Flush (with Suit) and 250x for a Royal Flush with the Suit. So the ratio between the lowest payout and the highest is a mere 1:250, with each successive step up The Ladders dividing that previous prize by a fixed ratio. Compare that to a pay table for the same JOKER game (another variant on JOKERS) which begins at 1x, 2x, 4x, 6x, 12x, 20x and 200x respectively. Now the ratio between steps is a much more dramatic 1:2. Moving from a High Pair to a Royal Flush on this machine requires dividing each prior prize by only 10 times, resulting in a massive boost to Theoretical Return Average.

Look, I get it. I'm not a mathematician. All this talk of ratios and step functions has my head spinning. Luckily there are sites and apps dedicated entirely to video poker analysis, featuring up-to-date calculations for all known variants of the game along with customized play charts for each. Once you've identified the precise pay table for the video poker machine you're about to sit down at you can quickly consult your reference material and play that particular machine with near-expert precision. And, yes, you'll stick out like a sore thumb as the only person on the row holding the four-of-a-kind with a pair instead of the single King. But that's okay. Because you know why you're doing it. And you understand the math. And someday, somehow, it will all pay off. Literally.

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Choosing to Play Extreme Progressives Over Local Machines

I save the worst for last. And this one is bad. Really bad. Like, pulling-out-all-the-stops, "What the actual fuck?" bad.

Remember my comments above about pay table step functions and how a smaller step function created by larger incremental payouts could lead to a much higher Theoretical Return Average? You can take that to the bank. Except, you know... Don't. Because the casinos know about that bank too. And they have a way of "encouraging" you to deposit your funds elsewhere. Namely, into one of their progressive video poker machines. Remember I said that the biggest impact on Video Poker TRA came from correctly identifying and playing to the proper pay table step functions? I lied. Turns out the single biggest variable affecting your chances of winning at video poker isn't Basic Strategy, players clubs or even understanding pay table step functions. It's the size of the Royal Flush progressive jackpot.

By a wide margin.

I know. Mind. Blown.

At this point I'm going to refer you to the , which breaks down the incredible impact that a large progressive jackpot can have on your Theoretical Return Average. Using a generic example of a local casino with dozens, perhaps even hundreds, of video poker machines spread across numerous locations the authors conclude that a well-run operation can offer a Total Return Average (including cashback and comps) in the neighborhood of 101%. Not bad, huh? You'd expect to lose nine cents for every dollar wagered and, in exchange, receive what you consider to be a fair compensation for your travel expenses and general annoyance at having to drive all over town.

Until they introduce that flashy new progressive video poker game, paying out over twelve million dollars and counting.

At this point all bets are off. Because now the casino can offer a staggering TRS of almost 200%, or 100c in expected revenue per dollar wagered! For this exercise the authors assume a single "destination casino" located within a short driving distance for most players, eliminating the local casinos in favour of attracting gamblers from wider area. The increased business generated by the massive progressive payoff allows the casino to easily absorb what would otherwise be exorbitant giveaways, turning what would be a money-losing proposition on a local machine into a home run.

Make no mistake - this is pure casino marketing at its best. Or, maybe, worst. Offering a gigantic progressive jackpot has the added benefit of generating wall-to-wall media coverage, both online and in print. Who can forget the tens of millions offered up by slots and video poker machines during the early days of that state's gradual descent into casino nirvana? I know I couldn't, staring in awe at screens flashing ever-higher totals and wondering how anyone could possibly win that much money. But win someone did, and often. And the casinos made a killing on the side, thanks to those staggeringly-poor pay table step functions.

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The secret lies in the step ratio.

In an effort to generate interest in these progressive games, and entice players to wager higher amounts of money, casinos will routinely offer much-reduced step functions on the local machines. It's not unusual to find two identical video poker games, one located in a local casino and the other connected to the giant "Super Progressive" network, offering payouts of 1x, 2x, 4x, 6x, 9x, 12x and 4,000x versus 1x, 2x, 3x, 4x, 5x and 250x respectively for the exact-same game. Consulting the handy TRA calculator linked above we see that the local player is looking at a dismal 86.82% return on theory, which improves to only 94.62% when factoring in cashback and comps. Meanwhile the poor sap playing the "progressive" game in the hopes of scoring a piece of that enormous top prize is looking at a staggering loss of 95.38% on theory alone, before accounting for any complimentary goods or services. Ouch. Again.

The only rationalization for making such drastic changes to pay table step functions is to attract players who are incapable of distinguishing between the local and destination machines. And I say that without judgment, as I know I would fall victim to precisely that scenario. Seeing that twenty million dollar progressive jackpot flashing overhead as I walk past the bank of video poker machines would be an incredible distraction, likely causing me to blank on everything I know about the games and simply start mashing buttons in the hopes of getting lucky. And that, my friends, is exactly the reaction the casinos are counting on.

Personally, I refuse to play video poker games offering progressive jackpots exceeding $100k. The ratios get simply too awful to ignore, and I know from personal experience how difficult it can be to distinguish between similar machines in a sea of flickering lights and loud sounds. The numbers, as presented by the authors of , are simply too stark to ignore, warning players of the dangers posed by those sky-high progressive jackpots.

Unless, of course, you enjoy giving away your money. In which case, by all means, mash away.