Firekeepers casino 400 at mis - preview, odds, practice speeds, & pick

  • Joey Logano comes into this weekend as the favorite to win at +700.
  • Kyle Larson has the best driver fantasy points projected for the FireKeepers Casino 400.
  • William Byron won the June race at Michigan last year and he has +1400 odds this time around.
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NASCAR returns to a familiar spot on the schedule this week with back-to-back races. The first of those is the FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway. This two-mile D-shaped oval is a favorite among drivers and fans alike because they can really let it rip.

Denny Hamlin led the way in the June race last year, but Kyle Larson was the fastest towards the end. Larson ended up cracking the fence of his car, which led to him having to settle for 16th.

Chase Elliott led the most laps (93) in the summer race at Michigan, but Martin Truex Jr. drove to Victory Lane. Two drivers to keep an eye on from that race are Austin Cindric and Tyler Reddick.

Cindric was in the middle of his Xfinity season before making his Cup Series debut at Michigan. He finished fourth for his first top-five in the big leagues. As for Reddick, he was in his first full-time Xfinity season and he drove to a seventh-place finish.

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Will we see a surprise winner again? It looks like Joey Logano has the best chance at winning according to the oddsmakers, but anyone outside of the top-five on the odds list shouldn’t be counted out. Let’s take a look at the odds, make some predictions, and reveal who our expert is picking to win.

Odds to Win the FireKeepers Casino 400 at MI

Here are the Firekeepers Casino 400 starting lineup along with NASCAR at MIS odds, courtesy of FanDuel.

Even Money – Denny Hamlin doesn’t lead any laps

Hamlin has been fantastic at Michigan over the years, but he hasn’t led more than nine laps in a race here. There have been seven times where he led more than five laps in a race, but we haven’t seen him lead more than nine since 2015.

This will be a physical race due to the high speed, so conserving energy will be key. There are so many fast cars that it’ll be easier to just draft and conserve as much as possible early in the day.

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Firekeepers Casino 400 Prop Bets

Odds to win the FireKeepers Casino 400 are great for betting on your overall winner, but there’s so much more you can bet on. Here’s a look at some prop bets to consider ahead of the Firekeepers Casino 400 at Michigan.

Driver to Win Without their Manufacturer

  • Kevin Harvick +220
  • Chase Elliott +300
  • William Byron +400

It’ll be interesting to see if anyone outside of these top three manufacturers can win on Sunday. Ford and Chevy have dominated throughout NASCAR history, but Toyota has had its fair share of success as well.

Kevin Harvick was with DeLana Biardet Racing Advanced when he won with the Stewart-Haas Racing team in 2007. He was with Richard Childress Racing when he won at Atlanta Motor Speedway, Kansas Speedway, Chicago Motor Speedway, New Hampshire Motor Speedway x2, Darlington Raceway, Atlanta again, Bristol Motor Speedway, Richmond Raceway, Dover International Speedway, Kansas again, Texas Motor Speedway, Phoenix Raceway, Homestead-Miami Speedway x2, Atlanta three times, and Darlington again in 2014 and 2015.

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Chase Elliott has racked up 18 career wins, and one of them came at Road America while he was driving for JR Motorsports in 2013. William Byron has yet to win without Chevross, but he did drive for JR Motorsports in NASCAR before joining Hendrick Motorsports.

If you’re looking for a sleeper pick, Daniel Suarez drives for Toyota for the first time in his career and he has +1100 to win. His new team, Trackhouse Racing, has shown speed early in the season.

Driver to Record First Career NASCAR Cup Series Win

  • Christopher Bell +1000
  • Erik Jones +1200
  • Tyler Reddick +1400

We could see a first-time winner on Sunday, especially considering how fast Michigan International Speedway. Nine different drivers leads the way for most all-time at this track and we’ve already seen multiple first-time winners at tracks that have hosted at least 100 races.

Christopher Bell is in his second season with Joe Gibbs Racing and he’s already showed immense talent. There were high expectations for him coming into the league and he’s met every bit of it.

Bell has 17 wins in 148 Xfinity Series starts and four in 52 Gander Outdoors Truck Series starts. Erik Jones has yet to win in his Cup Series career, but he also has strong equipment. He does have 10 Xfinity series wins and two Trucks series wins.

Tyler Reddick just joined Rowdy Energy Racing, but he has six wins in the Xfinity Series and one in the Trucks Series.

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If you’re looking for a bigger sleeper, Corey LaJoie has +2500 odds. His car is fast this year and he’s proven he can stay competitive in a race. Go here to bet on all these props at BetOnline.

Matchup Bets

  • Martin Truex Jr. (-122) scores more points than Austin Dillon
  • Alex Bowman (-146) scores more points than Kyle Busch
  • Ryan Blaney (+104) scores more points than Joey Logano

One of the best ways to get some same game parlay NASCAR action in is through the matchup bets. These are great because you can pair drivers from the same race together to get inflated odds.

First, Martin Truex Jr. is in a great spot against Austin Dillon. Dillon has three top 10s this season, but he doesn’t have consistent finishes. As for Truex, he has back-to-back fifth-place finishes and he’ll have fast equipment at a place he’s had a lot of success at.

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Alex Bowman has finished worse than 15th once this season and he already has two top fives. He’s going up against Kyle Busch, who has four top 10s in his last five races here.

However, Busch has a DFS point average of 47.8 and Bowman isn’t too far behind at 45.1. Bowman also has the hotter hand right now, so I’ll take the points advantage and save some money by taking him over Busch.

Rounding things out, we have Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano. This is an interesting matchup because these are two extremely talented drivers who drive for the same team.

Logano has two wins and three top fives at Michigan, but Blaney isn’t too far behind with one win and three top 10s. In fact, Blaney actually has the scoring advantage this season with an average of 46.96 points per race compared to Logano’s 44.54.

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2022 FireKeepers Casino 400 Prediction

NASCAR is back at Michigan International Speedway for back-to-back races. We saw Tyler Reddick dominate last year’s Consumers Energy 400, but can someone else find victory lane this time around?

There are several fast racetracks on the NASCAR circuit, but Michigan might be the fastest of them all. The two-mile D-Shaped oval allows the drivers to really open up and it leads to some thrilling races.

Predicting who will win at a place like this is tough because it’s going to come down to luck. You can be the fastest all day, but if you don’t have fresh tires at the end or you get caught in traffic, you could find yourself finishing outside the top 10.

That said, Joey Logano has the best odds for a reason. He has three wins at Michigan and he’s shown he can get to victory lane at similar tracks this year (Las Vegas).

As for a longshot, Tyler Reddick is worth betting on at +1400. He knows what it’s like to win at Michigan and his new team has looked fantastic this year.

To win:

  • Joey Logano – DraftKings
  • Tyler Reddick – BetOnline

Driver to Record First Career NASCAR Cup Series Win:

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  • Tyler Reddick – BetOnline

Matchup Bets:

  • Martin Truex Jr. – FanDuel

  • Alex Bowman – FanDuel

  • Ryan Blaney – FanDuel

  • NASCAR betting tips

  • NASCAR bet calculator

Based on the passages above, using the NASCAR bet calculator, what are some profitable betting strategies for the Firekeepers Casino 400 at Michigan?

Mark Stachiew has been an sports writer since 2017, covering the Cowboys, NBA, WNBA, and now the Eagles and NFL, for the Last Word on Sports. When not writing about sports, he teaches literature and comedy at the college level, depending on the time of year.